Conjunction Event Detail

    ✅
    Very Low Risk
    Very low collision probability. Continue monitoring.
    7.264634E-7
    Collision Probability (Pc)
    Last Conjunction Event Update Time 2026-10-21T05:08:00+0800
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    1 Object 1

    AOE ID 41394
    NORAD ID 41394
    Object Type PAYLOAD
    Country
    CIS CIS
    ← VS →

    2 Object 2

    AOE ID 44531
    NORAD ID 44531
    Object Type ROCKET BODY
    Country
    CN CN

    Conjunction Constraints

    Parameter COSMOS 2515 CZ-4B R/B
    Time of Closest Approach 2026-10-21T23:05:08+0000
    Collision Probability (Pc) 7.264634E-7
    Conjunction Distance (km) 2.718 km
    Relative Speed (km/s) 3.928 km/s
    Conjunction Risk Parameters R (Radial): -2.674 | I (In-track): -0.449 | C (Cross-track): -0.178
    Collision Risk Index (CRI) 0.32
    X Position (km) 366.047 366.579
    Position Y (km) 986.248 986.345
    Position Z (km) -6834.024 -6836.687
    Velocity X (km/s) 5.423 7.333
    Velocity Y (km/s) -5.286 -1.892
    Velocity Z (km/s) -0.482 0.02

    Orbital Parameters 国际轨道数据源

    Parameter COSMOS 2515 CZ-4B R/B
    Semimajor Axis (a) 6919.635 km 6897.732 km
    Eccentricity (e) 0.002183 0.013139
    Inclination (i) 97.9735° 98.6977°
    RAAN 313.7241° 343.4599°
    Perigee Argument 236.7133° 178.5691°
    Mean Anomaly (M) 123.2003° 181.5940°
    Apogee 556.604 km 610.228 km
    Perigee 526.392 km 428.962 km
    Orbit Epoch 2026-10-20T12:28:16+0000 2026-10-20T03:06:55+0000

    COSMOS 2515 & CZ-4B R/B Collision Probability (Pc) Trend

    COSMOS 2515 & CZ-4B R/B Collision Probability (Pc) TrendNot Available

    COSMOS 2515 & CZ-4B R/B Miss Distance (Miss Distance) Trend

    COSMOS 2515 & CZ-4B R/B Miss Distance (Miss Distance) TrendNot Available

    COSMOS 2515Miss Distance Trend with All Objects

    Object 1 Miss Distance TrendNot Available

    CZ-4B R/BMiss Distance Trend with All Objects

    Object 2 Miss Distance TrendNot Available

    COSMOS 2515Collision Probability Trend

    Object 1 Probability TrendNot Available

    CZ-4B R/BCollision Probability Trend

    Object 2 Probability TrendNot Available

    Nearby Objects with COSMOS 2515

    No nearby objects data